Article Sidebar

Submitted
May 9, 2025
Published
September 30, 2025
Download
pdf
Statistic
Read Counter : 0 Download : 0

Main Article Content

Abstract

The Sinar Jaya Autobus Company (PO) is one of the buses engaged in the tourism business that sells and provides community needs such as bus tickets. This PO requires forecasting in data processing to produce accurate reports. The reason for this is because PO Bus Sinar Jaya in determining the demand for bus tickets cannot predict availability. Based on these reasons, the design of this system uses the Double Moving Average (DMA) forecasting method for the forecasting process in determining the amount and type of availability that will be sold for the following month. By using this calculation method it is hoped that the owner of PO Sinar Jaya will further optimize the things that can be detrimental to this PO in operating. If sales increase each month, using the DMA method, sales predictions for the next three months can be determined, the higher the number of ticket requests on the PO Sinar Jaya Bus, so that the forecasting results can help the PO to avoid running out of tickets according to consumer demand. Based on the research that has been carried out, it can be concluded that the Sinar Jaya PO Tambun bus ticket sales forecast using the Double Moving Average (DMA) method obtained the smallest MAPE value calculation results in order 2, namely 0.004599299 and the smallest MAPE value in order 3, namely 0.000614191. Comparison of the results of MAPE value calculations to determine the accuracy of forecasting results carried out with order 2 and order 3, it is proven that order 3 is more accurate for determining the error percentage results in this study.

Keywords

Data Mining Double Moving Average Forecasting Sinar Jaya Bus Ticket

Article Details

References

  1. Adi Prasetyo, G., Adi Wibowo, S., & Vendyansyah, N. (2023). Penerapan Data Mining Dengan Metode Double Moving Average Untuk Memprediksi Penjualan Kedelai. JATI (Jurnal Mahasiswa Teknik Informatika), 7(4), 2303–2310. https://doi.org/10.36040/jati.v7i4.7490
  2. Alex, M. A. H., & Nur Rahmawati. (2023). Application of the Single Moving Average, Weighted Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing Methods For Forecasting Demand At Boy Delivery. Tibuana, 6(1), 32–37. https://doi.org/10.36456/tibuana.6.1.6442.32-37
  3. Ardiansyah, Risnita, & Jailani, M. S. (2023). Teknik Pengumpulan Data Dan Instrumen Penelitian Ilmiah Pendidikan Pada Pendekatan Kualitatif dan Kuantitatif. Jurnal IHSAN : Jurnal Pendidikan Islam, 1(2), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.61104/ihsan.v1i2.57
  4. Astuti, Y., Novianti, B., Hidayat, T., & Maulina, D. (2019). Penerapan Metode Single Moving Average Untuk Peramalan Penjuaan Mainan Anak. Seminar Nasional Sistem Informasi Dan Teknik Informatika Sensitif, 4(July), 255.
  5. Farisi, M. R. Al, Trista, R. T., & Angeliawati, D. (2021). Aplikasi Sistem Informasi Kasir Tiket Bus Po. Sinar Jaya Berbasis Java. Seminar Nasional Riset Dan Teknologi (SEMNAS RISTEK), 1138–1144. Retrieved from http://proceeding.unindra.ac.id/index.php/semnasristek/article/view/5149
  6. Gani, A. P., Tundo, T., Akbar, R., & Sitompul, K. A. J. (2024). Peramalan Harga Saham NVIDIA dengan Metode Double Moving Average. Jurnal Ilmiah Informatika Komputer, 29(2), 154–166.
  7. Herawati, D., & Yenita, Y. (2023). Pelayanan Perusahaan Otobus Sinar Jaya Terhadap Kepuasan dan Loyalitas Penumpang. Widya Cipta: Jurnal Sekretari Dan Manajemen, 7(1), 59–64. https://doi.org/10.31294/widyacipta.v7i1.15103
  8. Ikhwani, R., Siagian, Y., & Marpaung, N. (2022). Penerapan Metode Double Moving Average Dalam Peramalan Permintaan Produk Beras. Building of Informatics, Technology and Science (BITS), 4(1), 80–87. https://doi.org/10.47065/bits.v4i1.1499
  9. Kartikasari, M. D. (2021). Forecasting COVID-19 Cases in Indonesia Using Hybrid Double Exponential Smoothing. Enthusiastic : International Journal of Applied Statistics and Data Science, 1(2), 53–57. https://doi.org/10.20885/enthusiastic.vol1.iss2.art1
  10. Prawiyogi, A. G., Sadiah, T. L., Purwanugraha, A., & Elisa, P. N. (2021). Penggunaan Media Big Book untuk Menumbuhkan Minat Membaca di Sekolah Dasar. Jurnal Basicedu, 5(1), 446–452. https://doi.org/10.31004/basicedu.v5i1.787
  11. Ramdhani, A. I., Khasanah, S., & Rarizki, R. (2020). Sistem Aplikasi Pemesanan Tiket Bus Berbasis Website pada PO Sinar Jaya. Syntax Idea, 2(9), 515–527.
  12. Restyana, A., Savitri, L., Laili, N. F., & Probosiwi, N. (2021). Analysis of Drug Forecasting with Single Moving Average and Single Exponential Smoothing Approach (Case Study in Jombang Regency 2017-2019). Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1899(1). https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/1899/1/012100
  13. Sarumaha, D. (2021). Penerapan Metode Double Moving Average Untuk Memprediksi Penjualan Tiket Kereta Api. Journal of Computer Science and Information Technology, 1(1), 10–13.
  14. Theofani, G., & Sediyono, E. (2022). Multiple Linear Regression Analysis on Factors that Influence Employees Work Motivation. SinkrOn, 7(3), 791–798. https://doi.org/10.33395/sinkron.v7i3.11453
  15. Tundo, T., Insani, R. H., Rasiban, R., & Suropati, U. (2024). Comparison of Single Exponential Smoothing and Double Moving Average Algorithms to Forecast Beef Production. IJID (International Journal on Informatics for Development), 13(1), 448–459. https://doi.org/10.14421/ijid.2024.4663
  16. Tundo, T., Saifullah, S., Dharmawan, T., Junaidi, J., & Devia, E. (2025). Seasonal meat stock demand used comparison of performance smoothing-average forecasting. Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 37(1), 425–433. https://doi.org/10.11591/ijeecs.v37.i1.pp425-433
  17. Tundo, T., Yel, M. B., & Nugroho, A. Y. (2024). Forecasting Beef Production with Comparison of Linear Regression and DMA Methods Based on n-th Ordo 3. JTAM (Jurnal Teori Dan Aplikasi Matematika), 8(3), 667–679.
  18. Yacob, G. S., Tundo, T., Mulyana, D. I., & Lestari, S. (2025). Prediksi Produksi Sablon di Perusahaan Tomoinc dengan Perbandingan Metode Single Moving Average dan Single Exponential Smoothing. Jurnal JTIK (Jurnal Teknologi Informasi Dan Komunikasi), 9(March), 59–67.
  19. Yel, M. B., Tundo, T., & Arinal, V. (2024). Forecasting Roof Tiles Production with Comparison of SMA and DMA Methods Based on n-th Ordo 2 and 4. JTAM (Jurnal Teori Dan Aplikasi Matematika), 8(3), 667–679.